The time has come to look beyond brief encounters. We must commit ourselves anew to a sustained program of manned exploration of the solar system and, yes, the permanent settlement of space. We must commit ourselves to a future where Americans and citizens of all nations will live and work in space... Our goal is nothing less than to establish the United States as the preeminent spacefaring nation... The Space Council will report back to me as soon as possible with concrete recommendations to chart a new and continuing course to the Moon and Mars and beyond.
George Bush, right? Yup... but not the one you're thinking of. The excerpts above are from a speech given by President George H. W. Bush at the National Air and Space Museum, on the 20th anniversary of the Apollo 11 moon landing... in 1989. (transcript)
Today, the other George Bush is giving a similar speech, announcing an eerily similar commitment to an extended plan for space exploration. It will no doubt be a fine speech -- persuasive, uplifting, a work of great oratory if it were delivered by a better public speaker -- because there are surely few subjects as easily manipulable into an emotive and rousing speech as the exploration of the great unknown. Occasions like this make for excellent publicity, particularly during a re-election campaign, but that other Bush speech from 1989 should serve as a cautionary reminder that there's little value in words not backed up by actions.
In 1961, when President Kennedy addressed Congress and announced the Apollo programme, he affirmed his commitment with a hefty budget increase for NASA. The following year, Apollo's budget was doubled. In 1963 it was doubled again.
By contrast, here are the details of today's plan:
Mr Bush would ask for a 5% yearly increase in NASA's $15.4bn annual budget for the next three years, followed by rises of up to 1% in subsequent years. (source)
(Yes, it really does say 'up to 1%'.)
I'm probably one of the biggest armchair supporters of space exploration you're likely to meet. I think that scientific research should be a higher spending priority than military defence. So, while you can certainly call me fiscally clueless, I am in no way anti-progress. Being able to seriously explore and colonise the solar system is probably the greatest opportunity available to the human race today -- an opportunity that was open to no generation before us. Without question, our future as a species -- if we have one -- is in space.
That's why I don't like to see politicians using space exploration as a cover for popularity-building exercises. The milestones promised by Bush are seemingly completely disproportionate to the financial commitment made. It's not as if going to the Moon has gotten a great deal easier or cheaper since Apollo. And this plan calls not just for a manned Moon landing, but for a permanent lunar base and an eventual manned mission to Mars.
A small budget increase is, of course, better than no increase or a cut. For that, at least, we should be thankful. But unless I am wrong -- and I would love to be proved wrong -- a 5% budget increase isn't going to usher in any kind of new age of space exploration. That will take real money. All Bush has done here is to make big promises, while leaving his successors to pick up the bill when he's safely out of office.
It doesn't take much imagination to see what's probably going to happen here. The necessary big funding will never materialise because no future president will commit to it, Bush's speech will be essentially forgotten in a few years time, and people the world over will keep dreaming about space.
I had the urge to write this piece because the announcement is making world news right now -- it's the top story on every news site I look at. And that's good, in a way... it gets the public excited about space again, which is something which is sorely needed, and which really doesn't have any downside that I can see.
But I think it's also important to temper optimism with a pinch of reality. I hope that people will look deep enough to see the full story here. Now and in the future, when it comes to the commitment to space exploration, we must be careful to examine Bush's actions -- not just his words.
While there are errors in your entry I do appreciate the more moderate tone of this piece.
Just remember that hoping for the best is a good
thing.
I think you're a bit wrong in your predictions here.
Take a right wing president, stir in a couple of helpings of communist movement, and what have you got?
Well I'm not 100% sure to be honest, but I think you'll find the words "space", "race" and the phrase "early twenty-first century" bundled together in some sort of history book 50 years hence.
Now where's my Chinese phrase book... Oh she's at home tonight. damn!
Mandarin. The future of both language and fruit combined.
Which right wing president are you talking about, Chris? Not Bush, who's only got another 5 years at most, and has already announced his disappointing NASA spending plans.
some red neck t*** blathering about space does not get me interested in the slightest. Why do you think our future as a species is in space? The amount of money spent on pointless excursions into the unknown seems to me to have a very low rate of return. I can't see the point, myself. If there was a decent planet nearby, maybe, but what can Mars really do for us?
Sorry about the not-very-well-thought-through nature of this comment, I have an exam in 3 hours, and I should really be revising :-)
Ask not what Mars can do for you, but what you can do for Mars!</pred>
"Why do you think our future as a species is in space?"
Because at some point in the far distant future, the planet Earth is going to be swallowed by the Sun and reduced to a cinder.
and you don't think we'll have destroyed ourselves well in advance of that time?
Possibly. I did say 'if we have one'.
You're right. I doubt America will vote in a right wing president after Bush.
I've made my predictions and I'm sticking with them. Besides I don't think the shit has hit the fan just yet, but it's certainly left the monkey's hand.